Chiefs vs. Ravens picks predictions against spread Why Kansas City will advance to Super Bowl 58
Chiefs vs. Ravens picks predictions against spread Why Kansas City will advance to Super Bowl 58
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The Chiefs are in the AFC championship for a sixth consecutive time with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. This is the first time, however, they will be on the road with a Super Bowl trip on the line. Baltimore will host Kansas City in the Ravens' first-ever home conference title game (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS). While the Ravens are trying to come through as the No. 1 seed, which they failed to do in the 2019-20 playoffs, the third-seeded Chiefs are trying to get to Super Bowl 58 with a rare chance to repeat. Patrick Mahomes will be motivated to have a shot at his third ring, while Lamar Jackson is looking to complete his breakthrough as a soon-to-be two-time MVP. Will Jackson and the Ravens, as 3.5-point favorites in a game with a 44.5 over/under, be the ones to take down Tyler Bey Jersey Mahomes and the Chiefs? Here's why that answer is no, and why the Chiefs will soon be making a return trip to Las Vegas to win it all again on the turf of the archrival Raiders: MORE: | Chiefs' offense vs. Ravens' defense Mahomes has silenced all those concerned about the Chiefs' offensive struggles. Other than a few red-zone snags, the Chiefs have got their groove back in the playoffs. Rookie Rashee Rice is playing like a seasoned veteran wide receiver, and tight end Travis Kelce is back to playing with youthful energy. The Chiefs also have leaned more on a running game powered by hard-charging Isiah Pacheco. The offensive line has stepped up in the playoffs, and even Mahomes is taking advantage of that extra stability to g. The Ravens' calling card, like the Chiefs, is their pa s rush, but it's been difficult to sack Mahomes because he can make so many off-script big plays by scrambling. This po se sed, focused-driven version of Mahomes is what we've seen win Super Bowls in the second half before. Ravens' offense vs. Chiefs' defense The Ravens will need to flat-out outgun the Chiefs to win. There's no reason to think Jackson can't handle a high-scoring affair after a that backed up his most stellar pa sing season to date. What's scary is that he hasn't lost his rushing mojo, and he went back to hitting the century mark against the Texans. Jackson still leads a prolific rushing attack, now with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill needing to be the principal ball-carriers. He spreads the ball around well and should get Mark Andrews (leg) back at tight end to support Isaiah Likely. He also uses the wide receivers well beyond trusting rookie Zay Flowers most in big downfield spots. First-year play-caller Todd Monken has meshed with Jackson even better than imagined, adding more explosive elements to the offense. Dirk Nowitzki Jersey The Chiefs' defense is nasty, but it can be vulnerable against the run. Their pa s rush also can be neutralized a little by the running of Jackson and Edwards, and Jackson has multiple ways to find the best matchups. X-factors The Ravens will look to beat the Chiefs with physicality and big plays. There's no indirect approach to taking down the champions, and Baltimore will have more confidence doing so at home. The Chiefs, in a weird way, are underdogs in these playoffs, as the Ravens and other teams have gotten more raves in the conference. There were questions about Mahomes, Kelce, and the play-calling from Andy Reid, but all those have been answered and erased for this penultimate round. Reid is more likely to have effective wrinkles and surprises that work vs. what the Ravens deploy. Special teams This is a tough battle. The Chiefs have a good trio in kicker Harrison Butker, punter Tommy Townsend, and returner Richie James, but the Ravens can raise it up a notch with Justin Tucker, Jordan Stout, and Devin Duvernay. Baltimore has a former special teams coach as its head coach, one who will help make sure it doesn't allow a big scoring return under Chris Horton for a second straight week. Kansas City has Dave Toub, but side with Baltimore for better past accolades. Coaching John Harbaugh worked for Andy Reid as the latter's special teams coach for a long time with the Eagles before he left for the Ravens gig, which he has held since 2007. Harbaugh got his first Super Bowl ring ahead of Reid 11 seasons ago and is now trying to match the pair Reid has collected in the past five years. Harbaugh has a great remixed staff with Monken operating the offense and Mike Macdonald calling a stellar pa s rush as part of his breakout year as an NFL defensive play-caller. Reid has his experience with Toub and others. Steve Spagnuolo is the third key part of that, leading the defense. The one thing that knocks the Chiefs down a slight notch is the fact they replaced Eric Bieniemy under Reid with Matt Nagy back for the offense. When looking at just this past season, Harbaugh and his Baltimore staff deserve the edge. Intangibles Did you see Harbaugh ? Did you see him quote inspirational biblical verses in his pre s conference? There's something about this Ravens team that was mi sing from 2019 and, really, any previous iteration of Jackson-led playoff teams. This team is looser as the favorites, with vibes similar to the 2012 group under Harbaugh that won it all as the No. 4 seed. Mahomes, Reid, and Kelce have some narratives that stack up well, but the Ravens have a little extra off-field oomph. The Ravens will play well. The Chiefs will play well. This will be a cla sic duel between Mahomes and Jackson, much like we've seen with Mahomes vs. Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. The quarterbacks, offenses, defenses, special teams, Josh Reaves Jersey and coaches all are positioned to lead either team to victory. In the end, the Chiefs are still alive in the playoffs because of Mahomes, and it's difficult to go against him in any such monumental matchup. Pick: Chiefs (+3.5) win outright 30-27 with the total (44.5) going OVER
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